A bubble or not?

In economics, expectation laid upon on irrational optimism leads to the formation of bubbles. Market participants chant "this time is different" when the economy takes off with a promising outlook and all news are interpreted positively despite foreboding signs of a downturn. Outrageously high evaluations of businesses/ideas are justified on grounds of unrealistic estimation of revenues. We all believe that we are smarter than our precedents and can avoid the next crash. However, what perplexes me is that most investors are actually skeptical. When they are presented with new ideas and business models, they tend to be suspicious and are rightly so. There is no expert opinion nor past experiences that can be relied on so people proceed cautiously. However, chances are that even though the new venture might be the next Google, most people would ridicule this new business, denying any possibility of its success until everyone else harps on. Only the few who are capable of independent analysis and are willing to nurture the new venture with the necessary resources would end up with the big prize.

在経済産業省的兩個月

，

経済産業省的外觀

上星期天在明報刊登的「安裕周記﹕通產省的破沙發」好像給自己在経済産業省的兩個月加上新的注譯，大有茅塞頓開的感覺之餘，很慚愧沒有寫一篇像樣的短文去反思自己在日本這半年來理應是很難得但自覺平平無奇的工作經驗，現在補上為將來作留底之用。

在経済産業省的研究所兼職了兩個月，談下上有甚麼貢獻更不能說對日本的官僚文化與制度產生深刻的認識，但從微小處可見大義，略談以下幾點：


1． Relationship matters．我這個不喑日文沒有人脈的外國留學生，如果沒有産業省內的人推薦根本沒有可能在這機構工作。十分幸運的是上個學期拿的兩課是由一位曾經在産業省內擔任甚高職位的教授主講，而我因為比較率性無禮在課內說話很多而被認識。其後在自己屢尋實習機會不果後，我便決定嘗試聯絡這位教授幫忙，不料在一星期內他便替我在産業省內搭好橋，為我找了一份替某位由中國來的學者當助理的兼職。

相較在美國找工作找實習競爭的激烈，這個實習機會可謂來得有點太容易。日本人注重的大概不是亮麗的履歷表或公式的面試過程，而是人與人之間的信任。「做生不如做熟」，産業省內的員工因為教授的經驗而相信他的推薦，而教授亦因為我在班中的表現而相信我的工作能力，所以我才會這麼容易獲得這個機會。這種互信關係減少了工作間可能出現的磨擦，亦是日本人團隊精神的另一種展現。壞處當然是有的﹣過份信任除了令制度失去自我改善的積極性外亦令制度變得不透明，使外人無所適從。

2．Everyone matters．日本人的團隊精神人所共知，我覺得這團隊精神的前題是每個個體都感到被重視和意識到自身對整個組織的重要性。每天的午休前産業省的廣播都會忠告職員離開座位時將電氣盡量關掉，減少對地球暖化的影響。我想，這不僅是這個國家對世界的承擔，這個政府部門對國家承諾的承擔，也是每個産業省職員對自身行動及對週遭環境影響的自覺。如果沒有感到被視為團體內重要的一份子， 他們不會將這廣播當一回事，不會將垃圾好好分類，不會不在車箱內用手提電話通話這些外國人看來高度自律的秩序。當然，這種自覺亦可以被譯成一種巨大的無形壓力，稍稍離軌便為社會所不容，致日本成為其中一個自殺率最高的國家。

3．Gender matters. 放眼研究所內，絕大部女性職員擔當的都是屬支援類別的工作，只有少數女性擔任研究員的職位。辦公室內只有女職員會將垃圾籃內的垃圾移至中央垃圾箱，「外遣」員工（即非正式社員）也是以女性居多。雖然至今不少日本女性都安份於男性主導的社會文化，但據我校經濟部門的伊藤教授的某專欄說，現在有很多(而且有增加趨勢)日本年輕男性屬「草食係」，即沒有競爭上進心，對工作戀愛都不感興趣，不願出國去闖，反之日本的年輕女性對外間的世界更好奇更想到外國進修或工作。這不會是短期內可達致的改變，但對日本老化和減少中的人口，更外的工作女性將可舒緩沒有足夠工人的壓力，長遠來說是一件好事。

如安裕所說，経済産業省是一所其貌不揚火柴盒般的建築物，在這裡的兩個月我得到的不是一些硬知識，而是一些不能隨手拈來需要反覆思量從經驗去提煉的軟知識。

The Quake: My Day

 I have experienced couple earthquakes since moving to Japan so when this one hit on Friday, I thought it would just be like the other ones which usually fade in a minute. However, the initial shock was different from the usual swing. It started with like a groan from the ground then followed by a slight up-and-down shake, and the shock intensified afterward. At my last day of work in RIETI, I was sitting in front of the computer in a 11 floors high government building and my office was at the highest floor. My hands gripped the keyboard tight as I sat uneasily and the shock persisted. My coworkers all stood up and they looked at each other with a surprised look. The binds in the office room made loud noises and the cabinet was banging the wall. After 30 seconds or so, I felt dizzy but I went ahead to email my parents and Kentaro about the quake and that I was fine, noting the unusual strength of the quake. I guess I was trying to find solace thousands of miles away in the midst of horror which was exaggerated for my being in an unfamiliar environment. Luckily, Kentaro was next to his computer and was able to send his comforting words over almost instantaneously, which somewhat unease my nervousness.

Floor of my office building

The first wave eventually quieted down but just when I thought it was over, the second wave hit. We all stood up, holding onto the table and I ran through scenarios in my head trying to decide whether it would be safer to be on the 11th floor or the ground floor if the building started to collapse.  We were all checking the web feverishly about any possible updates of the earthquakes as subsequent aftershocks made their presence felt. The news started to float on the web and I came to the realization that this one was indeed massive, but at that point, I still thought the damage would be minimal. After all, this is Japan, if anywhere, a nation that is best prepared for earthquakes, both technically and mentally.

people stormed inside 7-11 and all food items were gone

Things, however, made a quick turn for the worse in matter of hours. Reports of deaths started to come in and all trains were called for a halt. I left the office just before 6pm knowing that train service was unlikely to be resumed anytime soon. I looked up the route on google and took notes of the landmarks and names of the streets that I should set out for my journey. The streets were flooded with people, a rare sight that reminded me of Hong Kong but the temperature was still at single digit and I secretly regretted wearing only a thin jacket. Despite a long journey walk alone, I tried to cheer myself up by telling myself that this was quite an experience and that I was walking with all the commuters, so I was not alone. But I could not help feel sorry for myself that no one had called to check on my safety, not knowing that phone service was also disrupted. I went on walking, and stopped in a 7-11 trying to get an origini or something. To my surprise, the food racks were almost bare and I ended up getting a hot yuzu juice to warm myself before moving further. Then I realized almost all convenience stores along the way were stormed with people and all fresh food, bentos, origini alike were gone. Fast food chains and other food places that provide quick services also saw lines of people waiting, and I waited for 20 minutes to eat at a small Ramen shop across from the Tokyo University campus after walking for 1.5 hours in the cold. 

It took me another two hours to get home, in an almost uneventful fashion. I moved forward quietly with the rest of a orderly crowd, and there was no sense of panic in the air. Not even cops were needed for crowd management. The traffic barely moved but again, no horns or any signs of agitation, sirens of ambulances and fire trucks went off every 15 minutes or so and cars always made way for them to go through. 

I got home, and felt blessed that power, water and gas is still running. I turned on my laptop and saw all the emails, and messages on Facebook that friends, some of whom I have not talked to for ages, left me. I was very touched. And I guess that is the only good thing about a crisis like this. It bridged gaps of time, geography and draw you closer to people who care about you just when you thought you are alone. I cannot be more grateful for everything.

乍暖還寒

乍暖還寒的晚冬。

最近數星期每每讀到有關北非和中東的人民革命時，胸口都感到一陣暖流。在一個月之內亞拉伯地區星火燎原，對公義等普世價值一呼百應，他們讓我相信每個生命都有活得有自由、尊嚴的覺悟。一方面為因他們勇氣而帶來的改變而感到振奮，另一方面卻對報章評論都說類似的 民主運動在中國大陸不成氣候而感到無奈。中國人原本是一個擁有高尚情操深厚而優秀文化傳統的民族，但從不知何時開始，中國人的價值鍊被徹底扭曲, 變成一個造假上至學術研究成果下至藥和食品，連小學生也玩弄權術賄賂班選舉，致世人甚至中國人自身也羞與為伍的經濟動物。小說＜盛世＞裡寫到，只要給中國 人一條縫，他便能撐出一片天，但眼下的政制專權卻不斷收窄堤口，人性在製度的壓迫下愈見敗壞。歷史的種種偶然使一百年前的辛亥革命只能完成其一半使命，反之從未經歷過任何內部革命的日本在外部條件下卻成功轉型成君主立憲制的民主模式，歷史輪迴實在叫人無可奈何。

相比起突尼斯亞和埃及的和平革命，利比亞的血腥震壓造成的人命傷亡令人認清現實的殘酷。利比亞的獨裁者說，就如中國的六四震壓一樣，會不惜將槍頭調向人民來維護國家穩定。聽後，心冷了一大截。 當前中國的政治生態比起六四時沒多大改變，但一次又次對維權人仕的打壓卻顯示出政府的肆無忌憚。即使真的有大規模示威，領導人們大概亦會毫不猶疑的如六四般暴力清場。

「可以不為自由而戰，但不能為高牆添磚。」

韓寒這樣說。

的而且確，我沒有為自由而義無反顧的勇氣，只能消極的沉溺在自己覺得安心的世界而盡量做到不為高牆添磚。